The Quarterly · Q3 2026
PUBLISHING 13 OCTOBER 2026
Q3 2026: Beauty & Personal Care
Twelve categories on amazon.de, measured the same way, in one document. Each weekly report answers one category. The collection puts them side by side and asks what holds across all of them: where a discount pays for itself, where it does not, and how far apart two shelves in the same aisle can be.
- Categories measured
- 12
- Usable price changes
- 33,984
- Products tracked
- 4,860
- Pages
- 31
What is inside
Part 01
How the question is asked
- Why elasticity has to be measured, not assumed
- Control groups: the products that held their price
- Difference-in-differences without the algebra
- What a 90 percent range means here
Part 02
The twelve categories
- Fragrances and eye creams — where price works hardest
- Serums, moisturisers and sunscreen — the strong middle
- Cleansers, conditioner, shampoo and hair oils — the quiet majority
- Beard oils and hand soaps — the niches, and what small sets can say
Part 03
What holds across the quarter
- Cuts and increases are not mirror images
- Price level beats category: six ladders, one direction
- Discount depth and the two documented ceilings
- How fast competitors answer, and whether it matters
- Where a newcomer still gets in
Part 04
Reading the numbers against your own shelf
- Translating an elasticity into a margin decision
- When the range is wide enough to stop you
- Running the same test on your own products
Part 05
Appendix
- Study protocol v1.0, in full
- Exclusion funnels for all twelve categories
- The measured-but-not-published list
Three things it found
1.11
Women's fragrances move rank one for one with a discount — the strongest response of the quarter, and its range does not touch the quiet end of the aisle.
0.19
Hand soaps: a 10 percent cut buys about 2 percent of rank. Same shop, same buyers, nearly six times apart.
Six ladders, one direction
Six of twelve categories show a demonstrated gap between their cheapest and priciest third — and in all six, it is the cheap shelf that reacts least.
Twelve categories, same method
Every category in this issue is already published in full. The collection adds the comparison.
| Category | Cuts | Increases |
|---|---|---|
| Fragrances (women) | 1.11[0.96–1.25] | 0.93[0.77–1.10] |
| Eye creams | 1.03[0.88–1.21] | 0.80[0.65–0.95] |
| Fragrances (men) | 1.00[0.82–1.20] | 0.78[0.61–0.97] |
| Face serums | 0.90[0.72–1.12] | 0.88[0.73–1.03] |
| Face moisturisers | 0.84[0.64–1.05] | 0.80[0.64–0.97] |
| Face sunscreen | 0.69[0.51–0.95] | 0.55[0.41–0.69] |
| Face cleansers | 0.62[0.50–0.74] | 0.56[0.43–0.68] |
| Conditioner | 0.54[0.42–0.66] | 0.50[0.35–0.66] |
| Beard oils | 0.51[0.22–0.86] | 0.21[−0.22–0.57]n.d. |
| Hair oils | 0.47[0.34–0.61] | 0.35[0.21–0.50] |
| Shampoo | 0.40[0.28–0.56] | 0.36[0.24–0.48] |
| Hand soaps | 0.19[0.03–0.47] | 0.24[0.08–0.42] |
The full report is published on 13 October. Subscribe to The Monthly and I will send it when it lands.
The Monthly
Each weekly report measures a single category. The Monthly is where they get compared, and it carries the quarterly report when one is published.